Yes, this contest is an illegal lottery. A lottery is basically a game where you pay to play, there's a prize, and the winner is chosen by chance. Here, people had to buy cigars to get the bands (that's the 'paying' part), and there were big prizes. The main question was about 'chance.' The company said it was a skill game because people could use old data to make a smart guess. But the court disagreed, saying the real test is what matters more: skill or luck? The court decided that guessing a huge, unpredictable number is almost all luck. With thousands of people guessing, the winner would be the luckiest person, not necessarily the smartest one. Because luck is the main ingredient for winning, it's an illegal lottery.

Yes, the contest in the Tobacco Journal was an illegal lottery because people had to buy cigars to enter and win prizes, and the winners were mainly chosen by luck. Even though people could use some skill to make their guesses, luck was the biggest factor in who won. The contest was set up to be more of a game of chance than a game of skill. So, it broke the law against lotteries.

Yes. A prize competition where participants estimate a future, uncertain number constitutes a lottery because chance is the dominating element that determines the winner. A lottery requires three elements: consideration, a prize, and a result determined by chance. The purchase of cigars for bands constitutes consideration, and the prizes are clearly defined. The central question is whether the outcome is determined by 'chance.' The court rejects a 'pure chance' standard, which would require the complete absence of skill. Instead, the court adopts the 'dominant element' test. While some skill or judgment could be used by analyzing the provided historical data and market conditions, the outcome is ultimately unknowable and depends on countless unpredictable variables. With over 35,000 competitors, the winning estimate is overwhelmingly likely to be the result of a lucky guess rather than superior skill. Therefore, because chance is the dominating factor in determining the winner, the scheme is a lottery.

Yes, the scheme advertised by the United States Tobacco Journal is a lottery within the definition of the Penal Code because the distribution of property is apparent on its face, and the persons among whom the distribution is to be made pay a valuable consideration for the chance when they purchase the cigars. The dominating and controlling factor in the award of the prizes is chance, and the scheme falls within the requisites of a lottery as defined by the Supreme Court of the United States under a statute very similar to our own. While the advertisement gives some of the data needed to make an estimate, it was not desired to obtain estimates from experts and make it a contest of skill, but rather to eliminate knowledge and judgment as much as possible and make the contest a fair gamble for the advertiser's customers. The distribution is controlled by chance within the meaning of the statute, even if it is not determined purely by chance.

People Ex Rel. Ellison v. . Lavin

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